Selection Sunday has came and went, and we finally know which teams will be dancing into March, and who will be their opponents. But March Madness is all about the upsets, and if you want to get them right you need to know which ones are likely to happen, and why. So here is everything you need to know about the teams that are dangerous on this year’s bracket, because an upset is so much sweeter when you called it before it happened. 

First things first, all upsets are not the same, because sometimes the under seeded team is actually supposed to win, even if the selection committee doesn’t know it. So instead of focusing on their seedings, focus on the teams themselves. Your upsets should be viewed in 3 categories, of the good upset picks, the better upset picks, and the best ones. For that final group I like to call them 50/50 games.

 Good Upset Picks

Starting things off with the good upset picks, these are teams that should have about a 10-15% chance of winning their first round game, regardless of who they are playing. Those teams are Kennesaw State, Montana State, UC Santa Barbara, and Louisiana Lafayette. You could do worse than to pick them but regardless of how many wins they have, none of them are against anybody of note. But they may have at least held their own for a half of basketball against a ranked opponent. Go with your gut on these, but I don’t blame you for not trusting them.

 Better Upset Picks

The better upset picks are teams that actually have a near 25% chance of pulling out their first round game. They dominated their conference in regular season play, and generally have beaten a power conference opponent earlier this year. Those teams are UNC Asheville, Oral Roberts, Colgate, and Furman. Regardless of their conference, these are actually good teams, and if their opponent plays only average, and they come with their best, they should win that game with confidence. Colgate and Furman beat Syracuse and South Carolina by more than 10 points each, so no matter what you choose on your bracket, these games will be fun to watch.

 Special Notes

Before I give out my best upset picks I need to address the teams I didn’t mention. Any team that is seeded between a 12 and a 15 always has at least a 5% chance of winning, so if I didn’t say their name that team is in this category. Pick them at your own risk, because it’s your bracket not mines. And for the 16 seeds, I always give them a 1% chance of winning, because it’s only happened one time, shoutout to UMBC who isn’t making an appearance this year.

The Best Upset Picks 

And now for my best upset picks, the ones that I stand behind, are teams tthat likely have a 50/50 shot of getting out of the first round. And I will tell you why for each. Kent State has 28 wins this year, and only 3 non conference losses. 2 of them are to Houston, and Gonzaga, both by 7 points or fewer. And their third lost is to the text team on the list, the Charleston Cougars by only 2. And Charleston has won 31 games this year beating not only Kent State, but Virginia Tech. And there 1 non conference loss was to North Carolina, in a game they were winning at halftime. And the final team in my best category is the Drake Bulldogs. They beat Mississippi State who was ranked top 15 at the time, and only lost 2 games this year by 10 points or more.

The Bottom Line

But remember, every team in the tournament has a chance to win, even if that chance is slim to none. Trust your gut and make your picks because you can’t get the upsets right, if you don’t have it in you to make the pick at all.

KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.

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