It is officially the month of March and that means that Madness is upon us. Bracketologists everywhere are trying to determine which teams will be at the top of the bracket, and which ones won’t make it in at all. But we all love the tournament for one reason, to see the upsets. And as crazy as things can get, there is a secret to getting them right. So with less than two weeks until selection Sunday, here are all the teams, that if they can get on the bracket, will likely be a threat to bust the entire thing. And the reason why sometimes David is really the favorite, even when he is going up against Goliath.

The best team in any conference is dangerous 

There are 32 Division 1 conferences and about 7 of them consistently put out top 25 ranked teams. The reason why we don’t know who most teams are is because they don’t play on national television, nor do they play against the teams who do. But if a team is number 1 in the regular season in their conference, and wins more than 20 games in total, they are likely a good team. Their problem is that they must win their single elimination conference tournament to get a chance to go dancing. Otherwise an inferior opponent represents that conference, which makes for some lopsided tournament  blowouts. But the most likely upsets will be teams who are not only the best but meet 1 of the following criteria:

Rule 1: Teams with 23 wins or more, regardless of competition 

To win 23 games through this point in the regular season, you have to do something pretty well. Either you have a player who is much better than people give them credit for, or the team is exceptional at 1 important stat like rebounding, or field goal percentage. Either way, teams that are used to winning, won’t enter March looking for a participation trophy and here are the teams who’ve been doing that: 

Kennesaw State – Atlantic Sun Conference (23+ wins)

Youngstown State – Horizon (Lost to Notre Dame by 7, 23+ wins)

UNC Asheville – Big South (24+ wins)

Oral Roberts – Summit (27+ wins)

Teams with 20 wins and either beaten a ranked opponent or lost by fewer than 10 points

When you play against top teams, you get to prove to yourself that you belong. Any team that has already beaten a Top 25 opponent has essentially already pulled off an upset this season. That first taste of success will prove each of these teams that they have what it takes to win. So whoever they play will only be the favorite on the bracket. Because if you forget about the conference they come from, and are asked to play a 20 win team, who dominated their conference, and competed well against ranked teams, you are in for a tough game, no matter who wins.

Drake – Missouri Valley (Beat #15 Mississippi State, 24+ wins)

Kent State – MAC (Lost to #1 Houston by 5, lost to Gonzaga by 7, 23+ wins)

Northwestern State – Southland (Beat #15 TCU, Lost to #12 Baylor by 10, 20+ wins)

Teams with 20 or more wins and at least 1 win against a Power conference schools

Not every team gets to play ranked opponents but almost every team will play somebody out of the Power 5. If you are dominating your conference, and can beat teams from the largest ones, you have validated your spot as a legitimate contender in any game you pay. The teams on this list, have enough talent to compete with anyone and if they can keep the game close into the final 10 minutes, the game should go 50-50.

VCU – Atlantic 10 (Beat Pitt and Vanderbilt, 22+ wins)

Furman – Southern (Beat South Carolina by 19, 24+ wins)

Eastern Washington – Big Sky (Beat California, 7 point loss to Texas Tech, 22+ wins)

Charleston – CAA (Beat Virginia Tech and Davidson, 28+ wins)

Florida Atlantic – Conference USA (Beat Florida, 26+ wins)

Utah Valley – WAC (Beat Oregon, 22 + wins)

Colgate – Patriot (Beat Syracuse, 23+ wins)

Southern Miss – Sun Belt (Beat Vanderbilt, 25+ wins)

The Bottom Line

If you are serious about picking the best bracket, upsets are only an upset to everyone else. The people who pick them right actually believe that these smaller programs will win. True faith is not blind, and if any team on this list wins a game in the first round, it will not be an accident. The odds may not be in their favor, but I would bet my money that at least a couple of these teams, will not only put on their dancing shoes, but rush the court when the final buzzer sounds. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.

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