The transfer portal is still a toddler in the college athletics world, but it has already made a huge impact. Through early December there were already more than 1300 FBS college football players in the portal, and all signs point to that number growing past the 3,000 line. This means that we are now living in a world where more than 25 percent of all the scholarship football players in FBS are entering the portal annually! The portal has given unprecedented power to college athletes to shape their sports futures, but that does not come without consequences. Here is the good, the bad, and the ugly that has come with the transfer portal, because although the portal may be an option for college athletes, it does not mean that it is always your best one. 

The Good

The transfer portal has increased the mobility of college athletes. Up until 2018 college athletes were not allowed to transfer schools without redshirting an entire competitive. The portal allows athletes to take control of their careers like never before, by not only deciding that they want to transfer, but entering their name in an online portal system. This effectively tells every other NCAA program that they are available to be recruited.

Athletes at bigger schools are now able to secure playing time at smaller ones by entering the portal. And athletes at smaller schools who have “outplayed” their scholarship can look for a better deal elsewhere. When you throw potential NIL opportunities into the mix, the portal represents a land of opportunity for a college athlete. The transfer numbers from the last 2 years in Division 1 college football alone prove that the days of redshirt freshmen working their way into the starting line up by senior year are almost entirely over. Once you become a college athlete, the portal effectively allows any athlete to behave like a pro and initiate their own free agency. 

The Bad

It is true that the transfer portal has increased athlete mobility, but it has also decreased a college coach’s fidelity. On the most basic level, coaches know that any incoming high school recruit is portal eligible. And that means the coach is constantly in a state of appealing to the athlete, almost like they are a recruit, while they are already on the team. Coaches now have to recruit with the portal in mind and either look for athletes they don’t believe will enter the portal, or recruit directly from it. 

The latter is what coaches are seemingly voting on. The transfer portal in college football and basketball especially has already evolved into an adapt or die protocol. Coaches who don’t recruit the portal will get left in the dust when the recruits they worked so hard to sign decide to enter. Coaches have to run their programs with one eye on their current team, and one eye on the door to see if anyone else is knocking on it.

The logic behind recruiting is also shifting because of the portal’s impact. Imagine an FCS football program that recruits several power conference FBS players via the portal. The other teams in their conference must responds by finding their own transfers. In basketball, it could be the sixth man on an SEC tournament team that looks to transfer and lands in a small conference like the Southland. That one player could potentially shift the balance of power in the conference immediately. From the coaches perspective they have to coach their current players with the idea that they can potentially upgrade to someone better overnight via the portal. It is much easier to recruit a star player than to build one out of a role player. And coaches are constantly on the hunt now for the next transfer player, because if you don’t get him, your rival school probably will. 

The Ugly

There is also an ugly truth about the transfer portal. Although athletes have an abundance of control to choose what they think will be best for their career, they have the freedom to choose incorrectly. New NCAA legislation allows college coaches to take back scholarships for any athlete who enters the portal, going into their next semester. So entering the portal is effectively walking out on a pre-existing scholarship in many cases. This makes sense to a degree, that if you quit on the team they shouldn’t have to pay for you. But in reality, many portal athletes will not find a great landing spot, and some won’t find one at all.

Getting into college sports is like a nationwide game of musical chairs. In every conference and every division there are limited chairs available with scholarships underneath. And to enter the portal is to throw yourself back into the game looking for a better seat. The irony is that the portal might allow you to find a better seat, but after the music stops you could also end up with a worse one. And if you know anything about musical chairs you could have no seat at all. Athletes are playing Russian roulette with their careers, and some will get left out in the cold. 

Any athlete who is transferring is doing so because they are in some way unhappy with their current situation. But college sports is effectively a reset button on your sports career. And what that really means is that no matter what you were ranked or projected to do in college, if you are leaving a school because things did not “work out”, new coaches will have to take that into consideration. A 4 star recruit who goes to a power conference school and barely plays, is no longer a 4 star recruit in the portal. The chances of that athlete finding a scholarship at another power conference school are now slim, and anyone transferring should be aware of this. But if you are in Division 2 and similarly unhappy, the portal may not yield much since the only place for you to fall to, if D2 schools don’t want you is likely going to be D3.

The Bottom Line 

Athletes should not enter the transfer portal without having a good understanding of the recruiting landscape. The devastation for many athletes who enter the portal is that they are given bad advice, or no advice at all. The portal is an option for just about any NCAA athlete today. And it provides an opportunity that even athletes like myself never had. But that does not mean it will always work out the way that you hope. Entering the portal is akin to betting on yourself. And for the thousands of football players who have already placed their bets, I can only hope that they chose the right numbers for their lottery ticket. Unfortunately I wouldn’t put my money on that.

KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.

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