What REALLY happens to college basketball seniors in the NBA draft?

The NBA draft is the greatest highlight for almost any basketball player in their career, because having your name called by the commissioner is proof that years of blood, sweat, and tears have finally paid off. These days, the draft is dominated by young players. In fact, the younger you are the better. It is incredibly rare that a Senior in college is ever drafted in the lottery. It is so rare that it has only happened ten times since the year 2011. The NBA loves young players because younger legs, should stay healthier in the league for longer. However, four years of college basketball develops a high school boy into a grown man.

So what really happens to the players who do stick around to get their degree? They got picked in the lottery for a reason, and do they really turn out worse than all of the underclassmen who often get drafted ahead of them. To answer this question I will count down the last 10 college seniors to get drafted in the lottery, starting in 2022 and ending in 2011. Because if you belong in the league all you need is one shot, even if you already took a bunch of them in college.

Ochai Agbaji - 2022 Pick 14

In 2022 Ochai Agbaji of Kansas was the last pick of the lottery going 14th overall and later traded to the Utah Jazz. It’s a good thing he stuck around in college because he won an NCAA championship in his senior season as the tournament’s most outstanding player. In his first NBA season he average 8 points per game and started 22 games splitting games with the Jazz’s g league affiliate.

Chris Duarte - 2021 Pick 13

In 2021 Chris Duarte was drafted 13th by Pacers out of Oregon. He was actually a JUCO player originally and was the Pac 12 player of the year as a senior. He averaged 13 points per game as a rookie starting for half the season. But he only started 12 games in his second year where his scoring average cut in half.

Cam Johnson - 2019 Pick 11

In 2020 there were no seniors drafted in the lottery, so Cam Johnson in 2019 from UNC was the next one to get drafted. He was drafted 11th overall and played his entire career with the Suns, until getting traded to Nets in a blockbuster deal for Kevin Durant. His scoring averages have gone up every single season he’s been in the league, and in 2023 he averaged nearly 17 points and 5 rebounds, starting every game the Nets played in the playoffs.

Buddy Hield - 2016 Pick 6

2016 was the next time that a senior was picked in the lottery, the only year where 3 were selected. Buddy Hield of Oklahoma went sixth overall, making him the highest picked senior on this entire list. He was named the best player in college basketball as a senior and started his NBA career with the Pelicans. He’s played for the Kings and now the Pacers since then, but he has proven himself in the league to be legit, as the three point champion for All Star weekend in 2020.

Taurean Prince - 2016 Pick 12

2016 also saw Taurean Prince drafted in the lottery at number 12. The Big 12 player of the year at Baylor, he has bounced around in the league since his rookie season. He has played for the Hawks, Nets, Cavaliers, and Timberwolves with a career average of 10 points per game. But players like him are what position-less basketball is all about, so I expect he will keep playing in the league a little bit longer.

Denzel Valentine - 2016 Pick 14

The final pick of the lottery later that year was Denzel Valentine of Michigan State. He was the Big Ten player of the year, and finalist for the best in all of college basketball. But he never really found a home in the league. He was drafted by the Bulls and after his second season in the NBA saw very reduced playing time. He last played in the NBA in 2022 and in 2023 was a starting player for the Maine Celtics of the G league.

Frank Kaminsky - 2015 Pick 9

Frank Kaminsky was the only senior drafted in the 2015 lottery at 9th overall out of Wisconsin. The national college player of the year was drafted by the Hornets and after 4 seasons with them has bounced around to 3 more teams. He averaged 9 points per game for his NBA career, but in 2023 playing with the Rockets, he barely saw any playing time, which means that his run in the NBA is likely coming to an end.

Doug McDermott - 2014 Pick 11

Doug McDermott kept the same energy as the 11th pick in 2014 out of Creighton because he was also the national player of the year. Drafted to the Bulls he played their for 4 seasons, before bouncing around to 5 more teams. Averaging 9 points per game he is primarily known as a three point specialist in the NBA averaging more than 40 percent for his entire career.

C.J. McCollum - 2013 Pick 10

CJ McCollum out of Lehigh University was taken 10th overall by the Portland Trailblazers, and was later traded to Pelicans in 2022. He is the only player on this list who is a borderline all star, and was named the NBA’s most improved player in 2016. He took over for Chris Paul as the president of the NBA player’s association in 2022 which means that almost nothing happens in the NBA world that he doesn’t know about.

Jimmer Fredette - 2011 Pick 10

The last name on this list hasn’t been in the NBA for a while, but we cannot forget him. Jimmer Fredette was the 10th pick in the draft out of BYU in 2011. After tearing up college basketball as the national player of the year, he played 3 full seasons with the Kings before getting traded. By 2015 he found himself primarily playing in the G league. Jimmer didn’t stay in the NBA long, but everywhere else he has hooped he has dominated. He is a Greek league champion, Chinese basketball MVP, and D league All star game MVP “before it became the G league.”

The Bottom Line

Staying in college may not be the best thing for your draft stock, but is necessary for many prospects to even get a shot at all. For those who do stick around in the NCAA, there will be some who prove that they belong as a top pick in the NBA draft. With more and more players choosing to skip college entirely, those who do go will likely end up playing a little longer than we are used to seeing. However, if you belong in the league, all you really need is one shot to prove yourself. They say that it’s a make or miss league and the NBA doesn’t believe in second chances even if you’ve made a bunch of shots at the college level.

KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.

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