How ESPN Recruiting predicted the players in Super Bowl LVII, and who they missed

Super Bowl LVII was everything that a football fan could hope for. The Kansas City Chiefs emerged victorious in an offensive battle that went all the way down to the last drive. And although the Chiefs are now once again the NFL champions, there is no doubt that players on both teams got to live out their dreams of playing in the Super Bowl. However, years ago each of these players was a high school recruit, and ranking services like ESPN recruiting gave their assessment on all of them. The truth without photoshop is that colleges scouts are pretty good at their jobs, and they tend to figure out which top recruits will later turn out to be stars. But what about the players that they miss out on entirely? Breaking down the rosters for this year’s big game, it is clear that the guys who made it fit into four distinct categories: the blue chips, the prospects, the sleepers, and the climbers. And no matter where they were as high school seniors, all roads led to Glendale Arizona for the game of their lives.

The Blue Chips

Chiefs: 23 (Notables include Kadarius Toney, Juju Smith-Schuster)
Eagles: 21 (Notables include Devonta Smith, Ndamukong Suh)

Without any surprise Super Bowl LVII was dominated by the top high school recruits over the better part of the past decade. These are players who were ranked at least a 4 star recruit by ESPN, or top 10 at their position by some official ranking service. Jalen Hurts represented 23 blue chips for the Eagles, and Juju Smith-Schuster was one of 21 for the Chiefs. With 44 blue chips between them, nearly all of those recruits were officially tabbed on the ESPN 300 when they were recruited, and Trey Smith who was actually a sixth round draft pick, represents the only player who was originally the number 1 overall recruit in his recruiting class. But today almost 6 years later he is officially a Super Bowl champion.

The Prospects

Chiefs: 16 (Notables include Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce)
Eagles: 12 (Notables include Avonte Maddox, Andre Dillard)

Not every player can make into the ESPN 300, and many of those players will outwork and outperform those who do. Prospects are 3 star recruits who played their careers anywhere throughout FBS. Don’t judge a prospect by his rating, because they are led by Patrick Mahomes who eventually went on to become the 10th pick in the draft. And is now the Super Bowl MVP, again. But he is still just one of 16 prospect level recruits on the Chiefs. And for their opponents, Avonte Maddox led the Eagles in total tackles, while also leading their crop of 12 prospects. For those keeping score, blue chips and prospects represent 72 of the 112 rostered players on both Super Bowl teams.

The Sleepers

Chiefs: 8 (Notables include Andrew Wylie, Michael Burton)
Eagles: 12 (Notables include Zach Pascal, Haason Redick)

Talent evaluators clearly know what they are doing, but they also get some things wrong. Sleepers are recruits that were 2 star rated and down by ESPN, and some of them were not even given a ranking. That said, they earned scholarship slots in the FBS, and once they got their foot in the door, it didn’t matter what their rankings were. The Chiefs had 8 sleepers on their roster, and the Eagles had 12. But how good is a sleeper really? Well Milton Williams was the Defensive Player of the Year for his District in HS before going on to star at Louisiana Tech, and Michael Burton was a 4 year high school starter before playing out his college career at Rutgers. The thing about the sleepers is that nobody saw them coming, but they got scholarship slots at FBS programs, and eventually played their way onto draft boards when they arrived.

The Climbers (20 in total)

JUCO: 5 (Notables include Kyzir White, Gardner Minshew)
D1 FCS: 8 (Notables include Justin Watson, Khalen Saunders)
D2: 4 (Notables include Jody Fortson and Joshua Williams)
Walk-ons: 3 (Notables include Nazeeh Johnson)
No College / HS: 1 (Jordan Mailata)

If sleepers had low expectations, than climbers began with none at all. They were unranked and played their way into the NFL through very adverse circumstances. The Super Bowl saw 20 climbers rostered for the game with a collection of former JUCO players, FCS players, D2 players, and even walk-ons. And even 1 member of the Eagles, never played high school football at all, at least in America, as he played Australian football before signing a pro contract. And how does a climber make it to the Super Bowl? It depends on who you ask, because Kyzir White of the Eagles was once the top JUCO prospect at his position, and one of 5 to make the game. The 8 FCS players are much like Justin Watson, who holds 4 all time offensive records at UPenn, including their all-purpose yards record. Of the 4 Division 2 players, one Jody Fortson was a JUCO transfer himself. But we cannot forget about the walk-ons where 3 of them climbed all the way up to the biggest game in football, and now Nazeeh Johnson, who started out as a walk-on for Marshall only to become a Super Bowl champion.

The Bottom Line

College football recruiters know exactly how to do their jobs, but there is a difference between an athlete’s recruitment level and their potential. This year’s Super Bowl MVP has long since outplayed his recruitment ranking, but he is not the only one. And many other players, have proven that although they never received one to begin with, a disrespect I’m sure they have never forgotten. It has fueled the fire, that has brought their improbable stories to a happy ending.

KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.

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