The selection committee has made their decisions and March Madness can officially begin. But if you pick wrong in the first round, your bracket will be busted immediately, and all that work will go down the drain. And the most important thing for your bracket is to pick the champion correctly! So here are all the teams that actually have a chance to cut down the nets, and spoiler alert the list is incredibly short.

ESPN released their list of 8 teams that statistically have a chance to win it all, but I’m cutting down that list to 6 in no particular order to get rid of any of the pretenders. And keep this in perspective, 90 percent of the time the champion comes from the top 3 seeds, so there’s already no more than 12 teams that we really have to take seriously. 

The Contenders 

It all gets started with the Houston Cougars, who are second in the nation defensively, but can also score with the best. They are a top seed for a reason, so their path will be easier than most to the final four. But Alabama also has a good shot to win it all, because they score and rebound in the top 10 of the nation, and they arguably have the best player in Brandon Miller. UCLA is statistically just as good as Alabama but relies on their defense to do the heavy lifting, but they are missing a key player due to injury, so that will lower their chances. And Kansas is an obvious choice because they have never lost to a team that wasn’t ranked in the top 25 this year at the time that game was played. But unlike everyone else I mentioned they don’t do any 1 thing well enough to stand out.

Purdue was ranked number 1 earlier this year for a reason, and belongs in this group because they defend and rebound at an elite level, and shoot high percentages from the field. But their best player is a true center, and the tournament almost always comes down to guard play. And UConn is actually almost as good as Houston statistically speaking, and the Big East this year is way better than advertised. But as a 3 seed they won’t have the easiest past, and will likely need to beat at least 1 of the teams I just named to even reach the final four.

The Pretenders

Remember that any 1 of these 6 teams can lose but likely when they are playing a team that is incredibly good. So keep an eye on these last few teams, the pretenders, who more than likely won’t win it all, but can play the spoiler for someone else.

Tennessee is a really good team that defends well, but they are below average offensively against good teams. And Marquette is amazing on offense, but defensively challenged, so I wouldn’t trust either team to win 6 games in a row with that strategy. Arizona and Gonzaga can’t defend with any consistency either, but they shoot high percentages which can just as easily when the game against a great team. Indiana is a great team statistically with a path to the title that is just way too tough to survive. And Xavier is amazing on offense and rebounds well, but they still keep giving up a lot of points, which will get them in trouble at some point if and when they get out of round 1.

The Bottom Line

So regardless of what the seedings say, you have what you need to pick the right teams. Somebody on this list will get got, but somebody else will be cutting down the nets. Hopefully you choose wisely and the one you choose to ride with eventually takes a victory lap.

KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.

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