The real reason why March Madness upsets are inevitable
March Madness is all about picking the upsets, because who doesn’t love it when David sleighs Goliath, or when the little engine that could chugs its way to the final four? I’m talking about the real upsets, like when Yale beats Baylor. Or when Florida Gulf Coast introduces lob city to the sweet 16. I called both of them, and I have the receipts to prove it. But the truth about upsets, is simple. An upset is only an upset to everyone else. The players at any unknown D1 school who will actually win a tournament game, believe they will do it, long before they actually play it. They just have to turn the rest of us into believers. So regardless of how good the top teams are this year, I promise you that upsets are going to happen, in fact they are inevitable. And here is the real reason why.
Small D1 programs are good
Small conference teams are way better than we give them credit for. When you watch a random game like Syracuse vs Colgate in non-conference, you will find that out. And no I am not talking about the toothpaste. Syracuse and Colgate are both private colleges in New York state that play D1 basketball. But one is in the ACC, and the other you probably couldn’t tell me their mascot, which for the record is the Red Raiders. Every D1 conference has 1 or 2 teams that are legit. But when tourney time comes around, these likely upset teams have a problem. They have to win their conference tournament to get on the bracket in the first place. The tournament is teaching us a lot about the state of recruiting, we just have to choose to listen.
The Power 5 Conference Problem
We have a Power 5 problem. Where the assumption is that the most talented players all go to the same teams every year. Media coverage shows it, and basketball recruits believe it. But in 2022 the Saint Peters Peacocks made the final four. And it’s unlikely that any of their players were even considered as recruits by Kentucky, whom they beat in the first round. So now the real question becomes how does a team of Kentucky rejects go on to beat them in a game that matters?
And the answer is simple, big name programs like Kentucky only like to recruit a specific type of player. He’s probably ranked in the top 100 by all major ranking services, and has prototypical NBA size to match. But that strategy makes it impossible for them to ever find the next Damian Lillard or Fred Vanvleet for that matter. You can’t find a diamond in the rough if you only shop at Kay Jewelers… The tourney proves that just because you are overlooked by a big name team in the SEC like Kentucky, doesn’t necessarily mean you cannot play at that level.
Coaches overlook good players all the time
Why coaches overlook basketball players, and there are many reasons. It could be their size, or even what camps they went to, or more likely the ones they did not go to. But when Saint Peters played Kentucky, among their top 5 scorers were 3 state champions, and another player who was a FIBA Under 18 Africa Champion. These guys knew how to win basketball games. And their victory was only a shock to the people who didn’t know their name.
Players don’t stay with 1 team for their college career
My final lesson is that a lot of players have changed teams lately because the transfer portal has shaken up basketball recruiting. Any player who is unhappy at a power 5 program can simply transfer in today’s landscape. And those transfer players, the unhappy ones end up playing in the tournament for someone else. Like Southeastern Missouri better known as SEMO. They have 9 transfer players on their roster… that’s more than half the team! About half the players in high level D1 could be replaced by those from smaller teams and you wouldn’t notice. You might notice if Brandon Miller isn’t playing for Alabama, but I highly doubt you’ll miss the 9th man in their rotation.
The Bottom Line
As a recruit you have to find your best fit school, because big name programs aren’t the only place you can accomplish big things. When a coach reaches out you have no way of knowing if they are the next Lehigh University, the next Florida Gulf Coast University, or the next Saint Peters University. And remember it isn’t really an upset when you win. Because the only reason the coach is recruiting you because you are already a winner. You just have to turn the rest of us into believers. And trust me, I will be watching when you do.
KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.
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