How good is an NBA star actually in High School?

Playing in the NBA All Star Game is a dream for almost every high school basketball player. The game is widely considered to be the best collection of basketball talent in the world, but ironically, high school scouts might beg to differ. In the 2023 event we get to watch several NBA players whom if it were up to the scouts, they never would have made it this far, and 2 players who were so unknown at the high school level, they never even received a ranking.

The Elites

College basketball recruiters are pretty good at their job, and generally speaking they get it right about which players are head and shoulders above their peers. LeBron James was somebody even my grandmother couldn’t get wrong in high school, but the truth is that 15 of this year’s NBA All Star selections were ranked ninth or higher in their entire recruiting classes. Aside from LeBron James, only Zion Williamson was ranked the number 1 recruit coming out of high school in his class. And Kevin Durant was second in his. But the truth is that 10 of those 14 players were ranked in the top 5 of their class, but ironically Joel Embiid is not one of them. He was ranked sixth.

LeBron James (Ranked 1st Everywhere)

Zion Williamson (Ranked 1st on ESPN)

Kevin Durant (Ranked 2nd on Rivals)

Kyrie Irving (Ranked 3rd on ESPN)

Jayson Tatum (Ranked 3rd on ESPN)

Julius Randle (Ranked 3rd on ESPN

Jaylen Brown (Ranked 4th on ESPN)

Jrue Holiday (Ranked 4th on ESPN)

Anthony Edwards (Ranked 4th on ESPN)

Bam Adebayo (Ranked 5th on ESPN)

Joel Embiid (Ranked 6th on ESPN

De’aaron Fox (Ranked 6th on ESPN)

Demar Derozan (Ranked 8th on ESPN

Jaren Jackson (Ranked 9th on ESPN)

Lauri Markannen (96 overall grade on ESPN w/o a # ranking *same grade as Bam Adebayo*

The Prospects

There are always players who outplay their ranking. Players for whom some scouts saw something special, and others had specific concerns. Domantas Sabonis is the highest ranked out of all these players who was ranked 26th on 247 before leading Gonzaga to the Sweet 16. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a 4 star recruit on ESPN who attended Kentucky and within his one season there, earned his way into the starting lineup and led them to the Sweet 16. But Donovan Mitchell was also a 4 star recruit and the 14th ranked at his position, which is laughable now. After two seasons at Louisville he too worked his way into the starting lineup as a first team All ACC player.

Domantas Sabonis (Ranked 26th on 247)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Ranked 35th on ESPN)

Donovan Mitchell (Ranked 43rd on ESPN)

The Sleepers

The reality is that most NBA players are historically ranked among the top 50 recruits in the nation, by the time they leave high school. Which is why it is hard for scouts to admit that they overlooked players like Damian Lillard, and Stephen Curry. Both were considered 3 star recruits on 247 or ESPN, ranking 48th and 52nd at their position. It is safe to say the scouts were very wrong there. But interestingly enough Paul George and Tyrese Haliburton were also ranked between 45th and 51st on ESPN but made the jump to the NBA after their sophomore seasons.

Damian Lillard (3 star recruit on 247 and 48th by position)

Stephen Curry (3 star recruit on 247 and 52nd by position)

Paul George (3 star recruit on ESPN and 45th by position)

Tyrese Haliburton (3 star recruit on ESPN and 51st by position)

The Climbers

What ranking systems fail to admit is that they always miss out on someone. Every year there are at least a few players whom they never saw coming. And these players go entirely unranked, as a result, because the scouts didn’t even bother to give them a number. Pascal Siakam who is now an NBA champion, and an All Star, is one of those recruits. Which is funny because he only 16 points, 13 rebounds, and nearly six blocks per game in his one prep school season. But Ja Morant is the biggest climber amongst ever All Star, because he too wasn’t awarded a ranking by anyone. But he was a 3 time all state selection, and his high school’s all time leading scorer, so to say he was overlooked might be the understatement of the year. Today he is an NBA MVP candidate, and you can’t overlook him anymore.

Ja Morant (unranked on all ranking services)

Pascal Siakam (unranked on all ranking services)

The Bottom Line

The NBA All Star Game is where the stars of the league shine the brightest. Most of the men who play in the game, were predicted to do so years before they would wear an NBA uniform. But ESPN recruiting, 247, and even Rivals cannot play the games for you. The players who were slept on, and those who were entirely ignored are proof that what you focus on is all that you will see. And right now there is a high school basketball player, who isn’t included on any major ranking lists, who is preparing for a career as an NBA All Star.

KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.

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