NBA history knows who will win the 2023 Playoffs!
The NBA Playoffs are back! And unlike March Madness, the best team in the entire playoff bracket is probably going to win. The NBA plays a best of 7 games series in every single round. Which means that winning 1 game on accident is no longer a big deal for any team. And although more than half of the entire league makes the playoffs, “2 thirds now if you count the playin”, which I do not. There are only a few teams that actually have what you need to win it all. Believe it or not, NBA basketball is so predictable, that we might as well be watching the Fast and Furious movie series. So I’ll give you each team that can actually win the Larry O’Brien trophy, and a few wildcards that could make history. Because they play the games for a reason, even if we basically know how they’re going to end.
The Criteria
The teams that can actually win have to pass 2 tests in order to qualify for this list. Because these 2 things have been true for all but 1 NBA champion since the year 1980!
You have to win at least 52 games during the regular season. Teams can do load management if they want to. But Dwyane Wade and Shaq’uille O’Neal’s Miami Heat from 2006 were the worst team to win a championship since 1995. And they still won 52 games, believe it or not.
You need to have either a former NBA MVP or at least NBA Finals MVP on your team to actually get the job done. No team since before 1980 has pulled it off without 1 except Only the Detroit Pistons in 2004. But they did have the defensive player of the year, and 4 of their 5 starters were All Stars near the prime of their career. So that was enough to push them over the top.
And remember, many teams are good enough to survive one playoff series, even if they are not “supposed to win”. But the only teams who will win 16 games in the NBA playoffs have to be real ones. So I apologize in advance if this information hist a nerve, because I’m a Knicks fan, and I already know they are on borrowed time.
The Contenders
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks are the best team in the NBA, and I’m not just talking about the eye test. Their record in the regular season proves it. They won the championship back in 2021 and most of the key players on that team are still major pieces of this one. But the Bucks are not only the best team, but the favorite to win the NBA title again, and that is because they literally did everything right.
Building an NBA champion is about making highly educated guesses about the trajectory of a player’s career. You’ve got to hit the jackpot in the draft, and then wheel and deal your way from there. Which is what the Bucks actually did. They have 4 international players on their team led by the Greek Freak himself. But amonst their American born NBA players, only Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez were expected by high school basketball scouts to actually make it to the NBA. They were ranked 4th and 10th overall by ESPN in their recruiting classes. Bobby Portis and Grayson Allen were also likely NBA players going 16th and 21st when they came out of high school. But aside from that, nobody else on their roster was even supposed to make the league. Believe it or not Lindell Wigginton, who only played in 7 games this season was the best of their former 4 star recruits on the team. And Jevon Carter who is a legitimate part of their rotation was a 3 star recruit years ago. The Bucks are a team that nobody pays attention to, because for the most part that has always been the case, even years before their players were declaring for the NBA Draft. Remember Giannis Antetokounmpo might be the league’s best player now, but even he was passed up on by the entire NBA lottery. And Brook Lopez was last an all star 10 years ago!
Yet if there was a textbook on how to build an NBA champion, the Milwaukee Bucks seem to have read it cover to cover. They have an NBA MVP on their team, who is arguably the best player on the planet in Giannis. And that matters because you can’t win an nba championship without one of those guys. But they also have fringe all stars to surround him in the starting lineup. Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and even Brook Lopez have been all-stars in their career. Every single one of of them is an above average defender. And just like LeBron’s champion Cavs, anybody else who they let on to the court has to be an above average outside shooter for their position.
The Bucks are the team that we’d rather not focus on, because they have the players who we are least familiar with. Practically their entire careers have been proving that they are better than we thought they were. And they were already champions not too long ago, so they know it, even if we tend to forget. That the Milwaukee Bucks have everything you need to become a champion. And then some.
Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets are the best team in the Western Conference, at least that is what their regular season record would suggest. But for many people they aren’t even the favorite to win the west. Until now the Nuggets have never made the NBA finals. Believe it or not, it doesn’t really matter if the Nuggets are the favorite. They are legitimately the only team in the west that technically has what it takes to win a championship. I’m not saying they will pull it off, or even that they will win the west. But if they don’t, the last 40 years of NBA basketball tells us that whoever else makes the finals will be the sacrificial lamb for any team that makes it out of the East. So here is how Denver became the only team in their conference with a real chance of winning, whether or not we want to admit it.
The Denver Nuggets are a team that is really good, but seems to leave you wanting more. But for the players on their roster, it has always been like that. They have 2 international players on their team, both of which were second round draft picks, but 1 of them is now a 2 time NBA MVP! So clearly nobody saw that coming. And for the rest of their team it is filled with guys who were actually supposed to be here in the NBA. High school scouts got it right, sort of when it comes to the Nuggets. Players like Bruce Brown, Thomas Bryant, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and even Deandre Jordan were all ranked just inside the top 30 recruits when they came out of high school. Which basically means they should be role players 1 day in the NBA. But they also have guys like Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. who were recruits number 10, 4, and 2 when they came out of high school. Those guys are good, but perhaps not good enough. Because they’ve never made an all star team, and they’ve had at least a few years to figure it out. Denver has good players, they just might not be good enough. Which is the real reason why almost everyone is skeptical of the Nuggets.
But they play winning basketball throughout the regular season. And they have the player you need to get you over the hump in Nikola Jokic. Even if he is way better now than he was ever supposed to be. They have a point center who passes better than almost any big man in history. And shooters to surround him with. But without a legitimate second star player, it is hard to see the Nuggets pulling it off. Yet stranger things have happened. Denver has everything that a team “needs” in order to become an NBA champion. Even if they don’t have everything you might want. Lets just hope that for their sake the bare necessities are enough.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers are a franchise that knows what it means to be disappointed. They drafted Joel Embiid third in the NBA draft, and then he missed 2 full seasons. Let’s not even bring up Ben Simmons, because he was good in Philadelphia, until he wasn’t. And that’s putting it mildly. But all that is behind us now, because the Sixers have a healthy Joel Embiid, fresh off of a scoring title, and the MVP award. They were also able to flip Ben Simmons into James Harden, who was a former MVP himself. Regardless of whether you believe in the Process, it doesn’t really matter. Because they have what it takes to win the NBA Finals. The only problem is that it just doesn’t really feel like it all the time.
Remember to win a championship historically you have to win enough games in the regular season to give yourself a chance to get there. That’s 52 games or more, and the Sixers pass that test. But you also need at least 1 NBA MVP on your team. And the Sixers basically have 2 with Embiid and Harden. Simply put the Sixers should be on paper an even better team than the Bucks. Because the players on their roster reflect that. Believe it or not seven of the Sixers players were ranked in the top 20 basketball recruits in their high school recruiting classes. Which means scouts always knew that Harden, Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris were legitimate parts of an NBA team one day, back when they were 17 years old! And they only have 3 players on their entire eam who were not ranked inside the top 100 when they came out of high school. Deanthony melton is the only rotation player who wasn’t and he was still a 4 star recruit. The Sixers, simply put are a team of first rate hoopers. So if they lose a playoff series it won’t be for a lack of talent.
However, the 76ers feel like a throwback NBA team modernized for the new NBA. Like a Toyota Camry for 2023 meeting one from 1996. The car still serves the same functions today as it did back then, but with way more features. Embiid is a big man in a small ball league who is a dominating force. In many ways he is this generation’s version of Shaquille O’Neal. But James Harden needs to show up big for the Sixers to win a title, and he is perhaps more like Penny Hardaway at this stage of his career, than he is like Kobe Bryant. The big man, big guard tandem works to win rings. And it works specifically well when both have MVP level talent. The Sixers check all the boxes, including having quality role players, who perhaps are even more capable than we care to admit. But they are not the best team in the East, or even the second best. So whatever happens this season is entirely on them. Because the truth is that they should be the best team, and their regular season record has already been a bit of a let down. But all is forgiven if they actually win the championship. Too bad they probably won’t be able to forgive themselves if they do not.
The Challenger
To win an NBA title over the past 40 years, your team has had to do two things. Win at least 52 games in the regular season, and have at least 1 NBA MVP or Final MVP to lead your team. But this season the list of teams that make that list is really short. Only the Bucks, Sixers, and Nuggets actually qualify. I don’t blame you if that doesn’t sit well with you. So maybe this year will be the second time since the 2004 Pistons that the rules have been broken, and if so, these are the most likely candidates to do it.
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are the best team in the NBA that we love to forget about. But the Celtics franchise is no stranger to winning. They’ve won more championships than anyone in NBA history, and although Kevin Garnett proved that anything is possible, they have now made the playoffs every single year since Jayson Tatum arrived. And it is ironic that he represents the Jordan brand. Because the Celtics now seem to be following the script that Michael Jordan laid out years ago to win an NBA championship. They have 2 of the NBA’s top 2 way wings with perimeter shooting and defense to surround them with. So we know that technically they can win it all. And the only real knock on them is that they haven’t actually done it yet. The Celtics have enough wins to qualify as a title contender at 57. But the Celtics don’t have an NBA MVP as of yet. Jayson Tatum is about as close as you can get without actually being one. It is fitting the 3rd ranked recruit out of high school and Jaylen Brown was 4th in his recruiting class. Because both are about as good as advertised, and Tatum is perhaps just a little bit better. Considering their depth and high quality performance all year, there is no reason not to take the Celtics seriously, except the fact Tatum isn’t actually an MVP. And for 40 years that means the Celtics will fall short yet again.
The Pretenders
The next four teams all have the same problem. They have an MVP on their team, or an NBA Finals MVP. Some even have both. But that doesn’t matter because none of them have won more than 45 games this season, which is pretty far away from the 52 they need to qualify as legit contenders. The Suns, Clippers, Warriors, and Lakers were all within 2 games of each other at the end of the regular season. Each of them has a player you can count on when the going gets tough. But that will not matter, if the team can’t rally around them, and there is no historical data we can point to that suggests they will. Root for these teams if you want to. But my advice is to aim low and avoid disappointment.
Phoenix Suns
Kevin Durant plays for a Suns team that has all the talent in the world for their starting lineup, but has never actually played together for more than 10 games entering the playoffs. Historically that doesn’t win championships. And after all the wheeling and dealing, the Suns will not have homecourt advantage for any series beyond the first round. Durant is to some people the real MVP. But it doesn’t matter because the Suns have shown no consistency all season long, and with a brand new roster essentially, there is no reason to believe that will change now except blind faith in Durant himself.
Los Angeles Clippers
Kawhi Leonard has proven that he can get you a title back in Toronto. But the Clippers are not only without Paul George, but are nowhere near as complete a team as the Raptors were when he got there. The Clippers could be way better than their record indicates if they played even 70 percent of the season with all of their players healthy. But they didn’t and chemistry will always be an issue since no rotation has been established. Russell Westbrook is an MVP himself for the record, but his addition to the Clippers is not that of an MVP. He is playing now for the veterans minimum. If Paul George was healthy, the Clippers would still be the longest of longshots. But without him, there is no real chance of them winning it all.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are defending champions but they are not the same team they were a year ago. Their record is much worse and the only real reason for this might be that every year from this point on their most talented players will continue to decline in production. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green aren’t quite as good as they used to be and the numbers reflect that. And the Warriors literally can’t buy a win on the road this season. Aside from their roster, nothing about this Warriors team resembles those that actually won championships. So any expectations of a Warriors repeat should be slim to none.
Los Angeles Lakers
And the Lakers have King James, and Anthony Davis. Which is enough to give them a chance. But to be clear that is the only thing you would be putting faith in. The Lakers do nothing consistent with an NBA champion. They just have two guys they can count on, sort of. Because as much as I love LeBron, he is not the same player as he was in 2012, or even 2016. And Anthony Davis has been in and out of the lineup all season long. There’s no reason to mention the rest of the Lakers team. They have given us no reason to mention them by name, other than wishful thinking. In fact, Malik Beasley, and Tristan Thompson, who signed with them literally before the playoffs started, are the only other Lakers players who have ever even won a playoff series. So ride with King James if you want to. But the car he’s driving doesn’t have any brakes on it.
The Bottom Line
To win the NBA title a lot of things have to go your way. The last 40 years of NBA basketball tell us that only 3 teams are really playing to win a title. With everyone else there to make it look interesting. But 4 teams have at least one hero available who can prove Kevin Garnett to be a prophet, that anything is possible. Believe what you want to believe, but history has already made it clear who they would be betting on.
KNOW THE GAME. WIN THE GAME.
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